NFL Wins Pool Update
Last updated November 16, 2021
Standings
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ellenberger | 20 | 19 | 69.0% | 1 | 33.4 | 1 |
| 2 | Steve Creaser | 18 | 21 | 66.7% | 2 | 32.4 | 2 |
| 3 | Matt Hogel | 16 | 19 | 55.2% | 4 | 27.6 | 3 |
| 3 | Gavin Gray | 16 | 18 | 53.3% | 6 | 27.4 | 4 |
| 5 | Nick Boucher | 15 | 20 | 53.6% | 5 | 26.5 | 5 |
| 5 | Andrew Batchelor | 15 | 21 | 55.6% | 3 | 26.5 | 5 |
| 7 | Mike Thorne | 14 | 21 | 51.9% | 7 | 26.1 | 7 |
| 7 | Luke Phelan | 14 | 19 | 48.3% | 8 | 24.6 | 8 |
| 9 | Karl Loiseau | 11 | 19 | 37.9% | 9 | 21.4 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrew Moeller | 9 | 21 | 33.3% | 10 | 19.3 | 10 |
- Projected wins taken from ESPN FPI projections.
Expanded Standings
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 12.5 | @SEA | 0.59 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8 | 12.6 | HOU | 0.81 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 8.3 | GB | 0.41 |
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 12.0 | @KC | 0.41 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 11.7 | NYG | 0.83 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 8.7 | @LVR | 0.54 |
| Gavin Gray | ||||
| New England Patriots | 6 | 10.1 | @ATL | 0.73 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5 | 8.7 | DET | 0.81 |
| Denver Broncos | 5 | 8.6 | BYE | |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 11.0 | BYE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 8.0 | WAS | 0.62 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 8.6 | @JAX | 0.72 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 10.4 | @CHI | 0.72 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | 9.3 | @PHI | 0.45 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 6.8 | NE | 0.27 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 8 | 12.4 | @MIN | 0.59 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 9.7 | PIT | 0.67 |
| New York Jets | 2 | 4.4 | MIA | 0.39 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 8.4 | @BUF | 0.27 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 8.3 | @LAC | 0.33 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 7.9 | NO | 0.55 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 | 11.7 | IND | 0.73 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5 | 8.3 | CIN | 0.46 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 6.1 | @TB | 0.17 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 10.2 | DAL | 0.59 |
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 6.4 | @NYJ | 0.61 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 4.8 | SF | 0.28 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 5.8 | BAL | 0.28 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 7.5 | ARI | 0.41 |
| Washington | 3 | 6.0 | @CAR | 0.38 |
- Win probability calculated from consensus vegas point spreads
Weekly Head-to-Heads
Leverage measured by:* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely contested
Draft Analysis
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Tennessee Titans | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 11 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Gavin Gray | |||||
| Cleveland Browns | 5 | 10 | 6 | -1 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Denver Broncos | 5 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 2 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 2 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 16 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| Washington | 3 | 19 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 22 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
Draft Results
